Turkey’s Next Step to Do

By James Johnson
08/12/2024
Source

Bashar Assad stepped down as Syrian president, leaving the country and ordering a peaceful transition.
Evacuation operations to remove Russian weapons from Syria have intensified.
The Turkish side should formally confirm the prohibition of such passages and order such ships to avoid the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus.



The Syrian Army (a bad name for this hodgepodge) didn’t just abandon positions – they mostly just ran away without telling anyone, even though the preponderance of forces was in their favour.

If, on the other hand, the situation in Syria is left unresolved, the attempt to act with a limited number of troops may lead to a protracted and unprofitable struggle.

In general, even if a full-fledged Russian contingent is to be brought in after such a collapsed front, it is still possible to get bogged down in gruelling fighting with no guarantees of a victorious offensive.



(Reuters) – The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad underscores Russia’s weakness and inability to fight on two fronts, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said on Sunday.

Russia had bolstered Assad’s government by staging air strikes against opposition targets beginning in 2015 and had operated out of two bases on Syrian territory.

But Moscow’s 33-month-old invasion of Ukraine has sapped considerable military resources.

“Events in Syria demonstrate the weakness of Putin’s regime, which is incapable of fighting on two fronts and abandons its closest allies for the sake of continued aggression against Ukraine,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

Russia said earlier that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad had left office and departed his country after giving orders for a peaceful transfer of power, but did not say where he was now or whether the Russian military planned to stay in Syria.

The HUR intelligence directorate, posting on the Telegram messaging app, said Russian forces in Syria “had withdrawn its warships from the naval base in Tartous which Assad had allowed Moscow to use as payment for his security”.



A frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich, as well as a cargo ship, the Engineer Trubin, were pulled out of Tartous on Sunday, it said and Russian aircraft were moving “the remnants of their weapons and military equipment” from Khmemim air base.

HUR provided no evidence of its affirmations and Reuters was not immediately able to verify the situation.

Russian war bloggers warned at the weekend that the two bases and Moscow’s very presence in the Middle East were under threat from the insurgents.

Both military and civilian ships are being loaded with military equipment. Moscow’s intention is to transport the weapons to the port of Novorossiysk.



it is known, that a fishing vessel has delivered from the port of Latakia (Syria) a consignment of weapons and military equipment to neutral waters, where it was transferred to the civilian bulk carrier BLOOM (IMO 9104158, MMSI 341922001). The cargo was to be delivered to the port of Novorossiysk.

Russia currently has air defence systems, missiles, military equipment, ammunition and up to 2,500 military personnel in Syria. An evacuation would require Russia to use the Bosphorus Strait as the shortest route to Russia.



If Russia agrees with Ankara to use the straits, it will be a gross violation by Turkey of the Montreux Convention on the transport of military cargo through the straits.

Now, the last word after Erdogan. Whose side he will take?